First Crop looks wonderful in the most important South Western region of India but the daily arrivals will pick up only from the second half of March.Trees are filled with flowers and tender nuts. However, the progress needs the summer season.
Even then, Indian processors need more than 8 lakh tons through imports. Once their procurement reaches the safety level, they will certainly bring down the raw cashew prices.
If the Vietnamese harvest fails, it is not because of the climatic conditions. Most probably soil needs extra support or trees need extra sunshine, space and strength. Even if they succeed in increasing their yield, they need at least 1 million ton (According to some incorrect press reports, Just 2 lakh tons) imports to fulfill their export target.
We think that the global exportable surplus will easily fulfill the raw cashew requirements of India, Vietnam and Brazil.
Actual glut period in the raw cashew may start from the last week of April.