Onset of festive season in India and Chinese vigilance on cross-border trade in almond and pistachios might cause some exporters to default contracts in cashew kernel. Vietnam’s export to EU and USA is on decline due to growing Chinese demand.
Earlier almonds, pistachios and cashew would flow without import duty in small vehicles across Vietnam Chinese border. But now, China has increased patrolling and has been levying heavy duty and penalties on almonds and pistachios as a consequence of trade war. So, only cashew is moving freely across border. Therefore small processors in Vietnam are the beneficiaries and have in turn stopped supplies to large exporters.
Therefore, some trade analysts are spreading bearish rumors to stop default in existing contracts but not to rock bottom the market, which is already at unrealistic low.