Cashew Flashback 2011

This entry was posted on Friday, December 30th, 2011 and is filed under Cashew.

At the start of 2011, we predicted that the year was going to be a growers year. Our prediction became the most successful despite low quality of the crop in almost all major cashew growing countries.
Q1 and Q2: Year began with a strong and promising kernel market but could not hold the gains in February and March due to consumption slow down and Indian Financial-Year-End activities. As usual, people for bearish raw cashew market tried hard to decrease the kernel market during the arrival of the Indian new crop. The rumor creators spread their words in the cashew flowering season but the story somersaulted when the crop arrived.The innumerable petty stockists strength was good enough to overpower bearish rumor origins. The Government of Kerala is always in the favor of cashew workers and farmers and they also fixed reasonable prices.Thereafter everybody including the rumor kings were compelled to follow the set market. The usual turn table movement is famously called ‘April Dance”. In the end of Q1 the raw cashew market hit all time high influenced by the April Dance factor (This year in March) and the same trend continued in Q2 till the arrival of rain damaged nuts.
Q3 and Q4: In Q3 market dynamics greatly increased due to some micro and macro economic factors. When forward sellers suffered losses because of this uptrend, buyers tried for renegotiation. In order to increase the average selling price of the sellers, buyers made a ‘much above market price purchase’. By such extra commitments sellers average price moved up. The bullish rumor kings succeeded in demonstrating this kind of ‘much above market price purchase’ as the real market. Thus the market attained a new peak.
In Q4 market went on a bear run due to some micro and macro economic factors. When the buyers lost heavily because of the down trend, the Q3 phenomena reversed. Some renegotiation was worked out between these two parties. To bring down the buyers cost of purchase, sellers made a ‘much below market price sale’. By such extra commitments, buyers average cost came down. But the sellers committed over-selling. Over-Selling created shortage of kernel, thus sellers lost interest in increasing the market (Because of Over-Selling). Despite the fact that the sellers cannot repeat such ‘much below market price sale’, bearish rumor spreaders succeeded in terming these contracts as the real market and therefore market kept reducing.

Filed Under: Cashew